QCIT Group's prediction on global infrastructure in the post

Writer： admin Time：2021-07-05 10:52 Browse：℃

QCIT Group's prediction on global infrastructure in the post-epidemic era
 
As a result of the epidemic, Fitch International, an international rating agency, lowered the infrastructure growth index for each continent this year. This issue focuses on building, energy, and airport construction to make preliminary analysis and predictions of global infrastructure in the post-epidemic era.
 
Due to the global spread of the epidemic, the flow of personnel, materials, equipment, and funds have been restricted, and on-site construction has slowed and stagnated. The outlook for global infrastructure construction in 2021 is not optimistic.
 
1) Construction industry
 
Canada: In 2020, the growth forecast for the Canadian construction industry has been revised down from a year-on-year growth of 2.1% to a decrease of 5.1%. Even if the epidemic is over, due to the disruption of the supply chain and the sluggish investment prospects, it will be difficult for the project start rate to rebound in 2021. Among them, the residential and non-residential construction industries will be more affected, and it is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year in 2020. In the long term, it is expected that the Canadian construction industry will start to grow in 2021 and may reach 3.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9% between 2022 and 2024.
 
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): The SSA construction industry in 2020 may be the slowest growth year in more than 20 years, with an adjusted growth rate of 0%. After the epidemic is over, due to the slowdown of the global economy, the export of bulk commodities in the SSA region is facing major risks, and the regional economy is facing greater pressure. At the same time, foreign investment in infrastructure projects may also drop significantly. Therefore, the development prospects of the construction industry are under downward pressure.
 
Malaysia: The forecast value of the real growth of the Malaysian construction industry in 2021 is revised down to -5.2%. Due to the weak economic outlook and uncertain tourism recovery, the Malaysian infrastructure industry may continue to decline. The current cross-border railway project between Malaysia and Singapore may be further delayed, but it is more likely that the project will eventually pass.
 
Indonesia: The forecast for the actual growth of the Indonesian construction industry for the whole year has been reduced from 4.9% to 2.1%. Although construction activities have decreased, the overall growth will continue, and there will be an acceleration in growth in 2022.
 
2) Energy field
(1) Power industry
 
Due to the impact of the epidemic, global economic growth has reversed and electricity consumption has decreased. Due to the reduction of power revenue, investors' investment risks have increased; site shutdowns have caused project delays, and the entire power industry is facing great downside risks.
 
Turkey: Turkey's annual electricity consumption and power generation in 2021 are expected to decrease by 2.65% and 2.39% year-on-year. Among them, thermal power generation has suffered the most, and bidding for solar and wind energy projects may be delayed to a certain extent.
 
Argentina: Argentina's electricity consumption and power generation in 2021 are expected to decrease by 4.7% and 2.47% year-on-year. Argentina implemented blockade measures from May and will continue to July. The long-term lockdown measures affect the demand for electricity by commerce and industry. Thermal power and hydropower are greatly affected, and the generation of non-hydropower renewable energy is likely to increase
 
(2) Mining industry
 
During the spread of the epidemic, construction activities were stagnant, labor was limited, and materials and machinery could not be transported normally, so mining construction projects faced widespread delays. Especially for some landlocked countries, because they face longer import and export routes, the impact is more obvious, and new investments may be postponed to avoid the increase in the cost of mining construction and the loss of income.
 
In South Africa and Angola, in order to prevent the spread of the virus, the two governments will limit mining activities to 50% of the level before the blockade. Due to the blockade, the operations of South African ports have decreased, and mining companies are forced to transfer the transportation of copper to ports in other countries, and the corresponding transportation costs will increase. The global economic weakness has led to a drop in the prices of bulk commodities, which has exacerbated the investment difficulties of mining projects. Coal mining in Botswana, Mauritania, Guinea, and Namibia has also been severely hit.
 
3) Airport construction
 
Although the short-term prospects of the aviation industry are gloomy, by the end of 2020, or in the long-term, airport development still has good growth prospects, especially in Asia, there will be significant growth in airport development between 2021-2025. Airport development plans are usually long-term, divided into several stages, each stage lasts 4 to 6 years. Therefore, after the epidemic has eased, the airport construction project will continue to advance and return to the state before the epidemic. And because the capital investment in airport construction projects has a driving effect, airport construction and airport operations have a positive role in promoting employment and economic operations. According to relevant data from Fitch, there are currently US$424 billion in airport projects under planning and construction, of which 47.6% are in Asia. Most projects in Asia are led by the government, and PPP accounts for 28% of the projects. Among them, China, Vietnam and the Philippines have the most airport construction projects.
 
Although affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the current international infrastructure cooperation is facing challenges, but QCIT INFRA is willing to help and help each other with infrastructure construction practitioners in various countries to jointly promote the high-quality and steady development of international infrastructure cooperation. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, international infrastructure cooperation is facing Unprecedented challenges, the International Internet of Things network of QCIT infrastructure materials plays an important and active role in promoting current international infrastructure cooperation.
 
As an important participant in international infrastructure cooperation, QCIT Group puts forward 4 suggestions for the current situation: one is to open more actively and strengthen international cooperation in infrastructure; the second is to deepen the construction of interconnection and interoperability to serve the development of regional economic integration; the third is to innovate investment Financing model to solve the funding gap in the infrastructure market; fourth, adhere to innovation and lead, and promote the integrated development of "new infrastructure" and traditional infrastructure construction.
 
The QCIT leadership stated that severe challenges have also prompted the construction industry to accelerate its transformation towards digitalization, flexible supply chains, off-site construction and sustainable development. Global construction equipment manufacturers should accelerate to adapt to this new change, redefine customer expectations, continuously improve products and services, innovate business models, provide customers with overall solutions, and help win-win cooperation in international infrastructure construction.